NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) 20100033532: The Critical Path Roadmap Project: Biomedical Risk Reduction for Extended Spaceflight

Source of Acquisition
NASA Johnson Space Center

The Critical Path Roadmap Project:
Biomedical Risk Reduction for Extended Spaceflight

John B. Charles' and Lauren B. Leveton 2

'Flight projects Division, Space and Life Sciences Directorate, Johnson Space Center, Houston,
TX 77058, 281/483-7224, johiUxadtai^ eov

" Universities Space & Research Association, Space Life Sciences Program 3600 Bay Area Blvd, Houston

TX 77058, 703/916-0643, lleveton@bellatlantic.net

Abstract. Human exploration of space requires an understanding of the risks to which
crews will be exposed during such missions, and the mitigation of those risks to the
fullest extent practical. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for
interplanetary expeditions involving long periods in weightlessness in transit to and then
from the destination (a planet, such as Mars, or perhaps a point in space, such as the
Lagrangian point L2), and exposure to the unique environment of the destination itself.
We need to know, more definitively, what the risks are to human health, safety, and
performance, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long
duration mission. The Johnson Space Center’s Space and Life Sciences Directorate and
the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have implemented an effort
to identify the most critical risks confronting humans on such missions and the types of
research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability
and severity of those risks. This paper describes the “Critical Path Roadmap Project” to
define, assess and prioritize the risks and presents the results of the assessment with an
emphasis on the research and technology priorities to meet the challenge of long duration
human spaceflight missions.

Human Space Life Sciences
Critical Path Roadmap:
Reducing the Risks for Human
Exploration-class Missions

Critical Path Roadmap*
Approach to Risk Mitigation

5 |

■ To the extent permitted by available
resources, including funding, flight
access, etc.:

- Identify the risks

- Understand the risks

- Manage the risks

■ Prevent them, OR

■ Reduce their effects to acceptable levels

- To endure safety, health and performance

- During and after spaceflight

The CPR Process

■ Iterative approach of review, analysis
and deliberations among discipline
experts

■ Focused on “worst case” scenario: long
duration, highly autonomous
interplanetary missions such as a human
expedition to Mars

Joint NASA and NSBRI Research Area Teams
January 1998

■ Habitation Systems

- Advanced Life Support

- Environmental Health

- Food & Nutrition

- Human Behavior & Performance

■ Human Adaptation and Countermeasures

- Bone Loss

- Cardiovascular Alterations

- Human Behavior & Performance

- Immunology, Infection & Hematology

- Muscle Atrophy and Alterations

- Neurovascular Adaptation

- Radiation Effects

■ Health Care Systems

- Clinical Capabilities

Ranking the Risks within each

Risk Area

■ Each research area team

■ Results of Risk Ranking

rank-ordered each of its

- Identified 55 risks (across all

risks using five criteria:

risk areas)

- Probability of occurrence

- Rank order #1 (including all

without countermeasures

risk areas): 17

- Probability of occurrence with

- Identified 361 critical questions

countermeasures

- Priority #1 (including all risk

- Severity of impact on
accomplishing mission
objectives

- Severity of impact on crew
health and safety

areas): 125

Ranking the Risks within each
Risk Area

■ Each research area team
rank-ordered each of Us
risks using five criteria:

- Probability of
occurrence without
countermeasures

- Probability of
occurrence with
countermeasures

- Severity of impact on
accomplishing mission
objectives

- Severity of impact on
crew health and safety

■ Results of Risk Ranking

- Identified 55 risks
(across all risk areas)

- Rank order #1
(including all risk
areas): 17

- Identified 361 critical
questions

- Priority #1 (including all
risk areas): 125

Rating Across Risk Areas

■ Subsequent to the risk ranking within risk areas, a
panel of experts characterized risks across discipline
areas, based on:

- Rank-ordering within each risk area

- Scores assigned for each risk

- Extensive deliberations by the experts

■ This risk characterization resulted in assignment of
each risk to one of four “type” categories

- “Type” is based on uncertainties in both the risk
and its potential mitigation

CPRP Risk Type Summary

Demonstrated

Serious

Problem

Suspected

Serious

Problem

Demonstrated

Problem

Suspected

Problem

No

Countermeasure

Concept

I

n

norm

hi

Countermeasure
Concept but No
Ground
Validation

u

u

norm

m

Countermeasure
Concept but No
Space Right
Verification

in

hi

m

m

Effective

Operational

Countermeasure

IV

Not

Applicable

IV

Not

Applicable

Critical Path Roadmap:Critical Risks

nruiF i nss

CARDIOVASCULAR

ALTERATIONS

HUMAN
BEHAVIOR &
PERFORMANCE

INFECTION S
HEMATOLOGY

MUSCLE
ALTERATIONS S
ATROPHY

NEURO VESTIBULAR
ADAPTATION

RADIATION

EFFECTS

clinical

CAPABILITY

OTHER

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Severe

Risks

Very

Serious

Risks

Serious

Risks

Current Activities

■ Independent extramural assessment of acceptable risk
levels (Baylor College of Medicine/Marsh/Actuarial
Research Group) on-going

■ Configuration management of content through “CPR”
Configuration Control Panel”

- Charter in revision

- First CCP meeting in May-June 2000

■ Website in development

- http://criticalpath.jsc.nasa.gov

■ Identification of deliverables and timelines for
managing risks and addressing the critical questions by
Risk Area Teams

■ Assessment of current and potential tasks for CPR
congruence and guidance as needed

Science Readiness Levels of Currently
Funded Code UL Tasks

RISK AREA

Science Readiness Levels (SRL)

Pr*.Phuw A

Phat* A

P«aa» 8

P naaa C

Pliaaa 0

Pha*< E

Unknown

Tolal Ho.

SflL X

SRL 2

SRLJ

SDL 4

SRL S

SRL 6

Advanced
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Prallm Inary
Anaiysia

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Operation*

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Support

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2

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0

0

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0

0

0

0

2

36

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2

IS

'

0

0

0

»

23

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4

«

0

0

0

0

-

id

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and Pailoimanca

24

25

3

0

0

0

0

52

Intaction and
Hematology

6

3$

0

•

0

0

0

43

Muit la Aluration*
and Atiophy

8

19

0

0

0

0

0

27

NtfurowatibuUr
A duptaiion

21

25

0

0

0

0

0

49

Radiation Enacia

3

29

•

0

0

0

2

35

Clinical Capaeilitiai

2

7

1 ■ 1

0

0

0

0

'•

TOTAL

ton

254

14

0

0

0

7

377

Paicant

2 7

67

4

0

0

0

2

>00

Defining “Deliverables”

■ Specific end-items associated with each risk and critical questions
Technologies (models, instruments, devices, equipment,
systems, hardware or software)

Scientific knowledge (underlying mechanisms & processes),
procedures, or processes

Results in, or provides critical knowledge for, risk mitigation
requirements

Types of Deliverables

■ (1) Risk Assessment and Acceptability

■ (2) Scientific Knowledge

■ (3) Development of Requirements

- Pharmacological

- Exercise regimes and fitness levels

Nutrition (including fluids, supplements, and stress reduction
strategies)

■ (4) Medical Intervention

- Diagnosis and treatment

- Post landing rehabilitation

■ (5)Crew Screening and Selection Criteria

■ (6) Crew Training (including expert systems)

■ (7) Design

- Artificial Gravity

- Habitation

- G suit design and mechanical devices

■ (8)Mission Ops

- Planning

- Implementation

CPR

■ For current 55 risks, identify and validate
countermeasures and/or risk mitigations

- for one-half by the year 2006

- for all by the year 2010